The Relationship Between Consumer Price Index and Poverty Levels in the Philippines
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11594/ijmaber.07.08.11Keywords:
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Inflation, Philippines, Poverty, Poverty RateAbstract
Analyzing the effects of Consumer Price Index (CPI) on levels of poverty in the Philippines gives insight into the economic situation of households. Changes in the CPI leads to changes in the general purchasing power of persons in the economy. This study analyzes the impact of changes in the CPI on levels of poverty in the Philippines. Due to unavailability of poverty data, this study utilizes Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) using RStudio to estimate and interpolate data gaps and perform temporal trend analysis. This study found that the increases in the CPI are associated with a decrease in poverty level suggesting that certain economic conditions linked with rising prices, such as increased economic activity or income adjustments, may contribute to poverty reduction. There is an inverse relationship between inflation and poverty. This study finds that the changes in the CPI directly impacts low income households in most cases.
Downloads
References
Adeyemi-Tijani, A. (2025). The impact of high inflation on food security and pov-erty in Nigeria. Available at SSRN 5083291. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cf m?abstractid=5083291
Arshad, M. A., Sheikh, M. R., Akhtar, M. H., & Mushtaq, M. I. (2019). Price Levels and Poverty Nexus: A Case Study of Pakistan. Review of Economics and Development Studies, 5(4), 591. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/M uhammad-Sheikh-4/publication/338427 321_Price_Levels_and_Poverty_Nexus_A_C ase_Study_of_Pakistan/links/60b7d7a992 851c209d5e3f00/Price-Levels-and-Pover ty-Nexus-A-Case-Study-of-Pakistan.pdf?fb clid=IwY2xjawRHKlRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQB zcnRjBmFwcF9pZA80Mzc2MjYzMTY5Nz M3ODgAAR7sQyWFpSR4msS-Ze4tr3BQu 8MXz2hnb19I6v8CPHY_OskXPDXJguB9F M2JjQ_aem_K_DtNtT7hhdi0lEqaa8ziw
Asian Development Bank. (2009). Poverty Philippines: Causes, Constraints, and Op-portunities. Mandaluyong City, Philip-pines: Asian Development Bank. Re-trieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/ publication/27529/poverty-philippines-c auses-constraints-opportunities.pdf
Aspalter, C. (2022). Super inequality: A general theory of mass poverty. Social Develop-ment Issues, 44 (2). https://doi.org/10.3998/sdi.3700
Azhar, N. A. S. B. (2020). The impacts of infla-tion on poverty and income distribution in ASEAN. Universiti Utara Malaysia, 3, 1-68. https://etd.uum.edu.my/10381/2/s8258 36_01.pdf
Baker, D. (2016). Getting prices right: Debate over the consumer price index. Routledge. https://api.taylorfrancis.com/content/bo oks/mono/download?identiferName=doi&identifierValue=10.4324/97813155026 56&type=googlepdf
Belghith, N. B. H., Fernandez, F. C. C., & David, C. C. (2022). Overcoming poverty and in-equality in the Philippines: past, present, and prospects for the future. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/e ntities/publication/52453a86-ffc1-5ffb-9 e1e-e02ff64eef48
Business World (2025). Gov’t sees poverty incidence falling to as low as 8% by 2028. Metrobank Wealth Insights. Retrieved from https://wealthinsights.metrobank.com.ph/bworldonline/govt-expects-Poverty-inci dence-to-fall-to-as-low-as-8-by-2028/
Capuno, J. J. (2022). Growth with redistribu-tion, finally: Regional poverty and ine-quality in the Philippines, 2000–2018. Asia and the Global Economy, 2(2), 100039. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667111522000160
Chairunnisha, M., Saptono, A., & Nikensari, S. I. (2024, January 20). The Effect of Educa-tion, Health, and Inflation to Poverty in West Java Province. EKOMA: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi, 3(2), 598–607. https://al-haramjournal.id/index.php/EK OMA/article/view/2826
Collas-Monsod, S. (1998). The war against poverty: A status report. In D. G. Timberman (Ed.), The Philippines: New directions in do-mestic policy and foreign relations. Asia Society. Retrieved from https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/book/as s01/ass01_c.html#:~:text=The%20ultima te%20objective%20of%20any,official%2 0attempt%20to%20measure%20poverty
Costales, J. A. (2021, February). Cost Modeling and Analysis of the Consumer Price Index in the Philippines. In Proceedings of the 2021 10th International Conference onSoftware and Computer Applications (pp. 32-38). https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/345 7784.3457836
Dabalen, A., Gaddis, I., & Nguyen, N. T. V. (2020). CPI bias and its implications for poverty reduction in Africa. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 18(1), 13-44. https://sci-hub.box/storage/2024/7632/ 8cdfe2ba2e771bcc82b6612ddefc8c4b/da balen2019.pdf#navpanes=0&view=FitH
Davis, E. P., & Sanchez-Martinez, M. (2015). Economic theories of poverty. Joseph Rowntree Foun-dation. https://www.jrf.org.uk/economic-theorie s-of-poverty
Hussein, A. M., & Abdillahi, A. H. (2025). Modelling and Forecasting So-malia's Consumer Price Index Using the ARIMA Model. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 14(2), 89-98. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ab dirashid-Hus-sein/publication/391367353_Modelling_and_Forecasting_Somalia's_C onsum-er_Price_Index_Using_the_ARIMA_ Mod-el/links/6813f343df0e3f544f5055ac/Modelling-and-Forecasting-Somalias-Co nsumer-Price-Index-Using-the-ARIMA-Mo del.pdf
Hasell, J., Rohenkohl, B., Arriagada, P., Ortiz-Ospina, E., & Roser, M. (2022). Pov-erty. Published online at OurWorldinDa-ta.org. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/poverty
Jolliffe, D., & Prydz, E. B. (2017). Societal pov-erty: A relative and relevant measure. Policy Research Working Paper No. 8073. World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curat ed/en/133671495562984832/pdf/Societ al-poverty-a-relative-and-relevant-measu re.pdf
Kaur, G., & Jalil, S. A. (2017). Examining the Linkage between Poverty and Macroeco-nomic Variables in Malaysia: A Co-integration Analysis. Information Man-agement and Business Review, 9(2), 6–15. https://doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v9i2.1718
Lakner, C., Foster, E. M., Jolliffe, D., Ibarra, G. L., & Baah, S. K. T. (2025). Reproducibil-ity package for Global Poverty Re-visited Using 2021 PPPs And New Data On Consumption. Reproducibility Catalog. https://doi.org/10.60572/qmda-qt67
Mahara, D. O., & Fauzan, A. (2021). Impacts of human development index and percentage of total population on poverty using OLS and GWR models in Central Java, Indonesia. EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis, 142-154. https://journal.uii.ac.id/Eksakta/article/ view/20448/pdf
Masita, M., Halim, A., & Suryati, T. F. (2024). The effect of inflation on poverty levels in West Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Gold-en Ratio of Social Science and Education, 4(2), 272–278. https://doi.org/10.52970/grsse.v4i2.102 8
Meo, M. S., Khan, V. J., Ibrahim, T. O., Khan, S., Ali, S., & Noor, K. (2018). Asymmetric im-pact of inflation and unemployment on poverty in Pakistan: new evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration. Asia Pa-cific Journal of Social Work and Devel-opment, 28(4), 295-310. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/M uhammad-Saeed-Meo-2/publication/327 844739_Asymmetric_impact_of_inflation_ and_unemployment_on_poverty_in_Pakist an_new_evidence_from_asymmetric_ARD L_cointegration/links/5eaf2e604585159 2d6b84af7/Asymmetric-impact-of-inflati on-and-unemployment-on-poverty-in-Pakistan-new-evidence-from-asymmetric-AR DL-cointegration.pdf
Misa, M., Mohammed, J. A., & Onyilo, A. J. (2025). IMPACT OF INFLATION ON POV-ERTY AND LIVING STANDARDS IN NI-GERIA: ANALYZING THE EFFECTS FROM 2015 TO 2024. INTERNATIONAL JOUR-NAL OF FINANCE, ACCOUNTING AND MANAGEMENT STUDIES, 2(1), 31-67. http://www.ijfams.com/index.php/ijfams/article/view/159
Moatsos, M., & Lazopoulos, A. (2021). Global poverty: A first estimation of its uncer-tainty. World devel-opment perspectives, 22, 100315. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/pii/S2452292921000291
Mottaleb, K. A., Mulimbi, W., Durand-Morat, A., & Han, J. (2024). Interrelationships Among the US Domestic and Global Rice Markets: A Time-Series Ap-proach. https://www.cambridge.org/core/service s/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/798 2933FD777FE9529849E8E2AEDC61A/S1074070824000075a.pdf/interrelationshi ps-among-the-rice-export-prices-of-major-exporting-countries-in-search-of-the-lea der-and-followers.pdf
Nabi, A. A., Shahid, Z. A., Mubashir, K. A., Ali, A., Iqbal, A., & Zaman, K. (2020). Relation-ship between population growth, price level, poverty incidence, and carbon emissions in a panel of 98 countries. En-vironmental Science and Pollution Re-search, 27(25), 31778-31792. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Kh urram-Ali-Mubasher/publication/341956 791_Relationship_between_population_gr owth_price_level_poverty_incidence_and_c ar-bon_emissions_in_a_panel_of_98_countr ies/links/609903e292851c490fcc315f/R elationship-between-population-growth-price-level-poverty-incidence-and-carbon-emissions-in-a-panel-of-98-countries.pdf
N Sibai, F., El-Moursy, A., & Sibai, A. (2024). Forecasting the consumer price index: a comparative study of machine learn-ing methods. International Journal of Computing and Digital Systems, 15(1), 1-10. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Fa di-Sibai/publication/378292374_Forecast ing_The_Consumer_Price_Index_A_Compa rative_Study_of_Machine_Learning_Metho ds/links/65d1d0a9e51f606f9979be51/F orecasting-The-Consumer-Price-Index-A-Comparative-Study-of-Machine-Learning-Methods.pdf
Pardalis M. C., & Sanchez, I. (2008). “THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY in 2007 and Prospects for 2008.” Senate of the Philippines. https://legacy.senate.gov.ph/publications/ER%202008-02%20-%20The%20Philippine%20Economy%20in%202007%20an d%20Prospects%20for%202008.pdf
Paul, M., & Sharma, P. (2019). Inflation Rate and Poverty: Does Poor become Poorer with Inflation? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3328539
Parolin, Z., Curran, M., Matsudaira, J., Wald-fogel, J., & Wimer, C. (2022). Estimating monthly poverty rates in the United States. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 41(4), 1177-1203. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/pam.22403
Rahman, N., Parvez, M. A. A., & Islam, S. S. (2023). Economic Vulnerabilities and the Inflow of Remittance in Bangladesh. JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 20(1-2). https://www.researchgate.net/profile/S M-Shariful-Islam/publication/389184906 _Economic_Vulnerabilities_and_the_Inflow _of_Remittance_in_Bangladesh/links/6906782e9708d52f2da469f4/Economic-Vuln erabilities-and-the-Inflow-of-Remittance-i n-Bangladesh.pdf
Reyes Celia, M., De Guzman, G. G., Manasan, R. G., & Orbeta, A. C. (1999, June). The 1997 Regional Financial Crisis: Its Social Impact on the Philippines. Presented during the Conference on Assessing the Social Im-pact of the Financial Crisis in Selected Asian Developing Economy (pp. 17-18). Retrieved from https://pidswebs.pids.gov.ph/CDN/PUBL ICATIONS/pidsdrn99-6.pdf
Riley, N. (2023). Consumer Price Index (CPI): Understanding Inflation Measurement. International Journal of Economics & Management Sciences, Volume 12:04, 2023(ISSN: 2162-6359). https://doi.org/10.37421/2162-6359.20 23.12.704. Retrieved from https://www.hilarispublisher.com/open-access/consumer-price-index-cpi-underst anding-inflation-measurement.pdf
Riofrío, J., Chang, O., Revelo-Fuelagán, E. J., & Peluffo-Ordonez, D. H. (2020). Forecast-ing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Ecuador: A comparative study of predic-tive models. International Journal on Ad-vanced Science, Engineering and Infor-mation Technology, 10(3), 1078-1084. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ju an-Riofrio-3/publication/342581198_For ecasting_the_Consumer_Price_Index_CPI_ of_Ecuador_A_Comparative_Study_of_Pred ic-tive_Models/links/5efe8a86299bf1881 6fcd5be/Forecasting-the-Consumer-Price-Index-CPI-of-Ecuador-A-Comparative-Study-of-Predictive-Models.pdf
Rizki, M., & Solihati, K. D. (2022). THE IMPACT OF CORRUPTION, INFLATION AND UN-EMPLOYMENT TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA. Journal of Busi-ness Administration Economics & Entrepreneurship, 4(1), 47–56. Re-trieved from https://jurnal.stialan.ac.id/index.php/jbe st/article/view/446
Sanchez, M. J. (2021, February). The People Power Revolution: Philippines 1986. Ori-gins.osu.edu; Ohio State University. https://origins.osu.edu/milestones/peopl e-power-revolution-philippines-1986
Sugui, J. A. M., Montojo, P. M. N., & Bermudez, A. C. P. (2023). The Impact of Foreign Di-rect Investment, Inflation, Labor Force, and Population on Improving Living Standards in the Philippines. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Stud-ies, 5(3), 65-86. https://al-kindipublish-ers.org/index.php/jefas/article/view/5292/4504
Sulastri, N., Rahim, M., & Armawaddin, M. (2024). THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION ON INCOME INEQUALITY AND POVERTY INSULAWESI ISLAND. In Iqtishaduna: In-ternational Conference Proceeding (Vol. 1, pp. 294-300). https://iqtishaduna.com/proceedings/in dex.php/iicp/article/view/53
Sumner, A. (2025) Global poverty: What do we know? Why do estimates vary so much?. WIDER Background Note /11. Helsinki: UNU-WIDER. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/ MVJS5638
Tijani, R. A., Lasisi, T. A., Shangodoyin, D. K., & Oladapo, O. J. (2025). Comparative Evalu-ation of Estimation Techniques for Pur-chasing Power Parity in African Countries Using the Country-Product-Dummy Re-gression Framework. Al-Bahir, 7(2), 2. https://bjeps.alkafeel.edu.iq/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1106&context=journal
United Nations. (2010). Rethinking Poverty Report on the World Social Situation 2010. Welcome to the United Nations. https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/rwss/d ocs/2010/fullreport.pdf
UNU-WIDER. (2020, April). A snapshot of pov-erty and inequality in Asia (WIDER Re-search Brief 2020/2). Retrieved from https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/ snapshot-poverty-and-inequality-asia
U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. (2018, February 14). Consumer price index frequently asked questions: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Bls.gov. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm
Wells, T. (1999). Sen’s Capability Approach. Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy. https://iep.utm.edu/sen-cap/
World Bank. (2022). Overcoming Poverty and Inequality in the Philippines: Past, Pre-sent, and Prospects for the Future. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38346
World Bank. (2023, August 2). Poverty and inequality. Retrieved from https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/themes/poverty-and-inequality.html
World Bank, World Development Indica-tors.(2026).Consumer Price Index (2010=100) [Data File]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/ world-development-indicators.
World Bank, World Development Indica-tors.(2026).The poverty rate in societal poverty line (% of population)[Data File]. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/ world-development-indicators.
Downloads
Published
Data Availability Statement
This research is free and can be accessed by everyone just as long as proper citation and credits are given to the authors of this study.
Issue
Section
Categories
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Alvin S. Catahan, Kent Daniel D. Carpio, Kenneth Clark P. Cruz, Kyle Vincent A. Melliza, Trisha Kyle C. Balot
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See the Effect of Open Access).
